India Coronavirus Numbers, August 8: Rise in recoveries, growth in active cases drop.
New Delhi: India Coronavirus Cases Numbers: While the total number of infections in the country is now more than 20.88 lakh, only about 6.19 lakh of these are currently sick. The rest have recovered, while a small number, about 2 percent, have died.
For the last two weeks, the growth in active cases of novel Coronavirus in the country has been dropping at a fast rate. This happens when the recoveries, and deaths, rise at a rapid pace. Since deaths form only a small part, just about two percent of all the confirmed cases, the decline in the growth rate of active cases can primarily be attributed to the rise in recoveries.
While the total number of infections in the country is now more than 20.88 lakh, only about 6.19 lakh of these are currently sick. The rest have recovered, while a small number, about 2 percent, have died.
While new infections are rising at a steady pace, the growth in the total number of infected cases has been on the decline again for the last ten days. And the growth of active cases is declining even faster.
Due to the recoveries, the active cases usually always grows at a slower rate than the total confirmed cases. But around July 20, for a brief period, active cases had been growing faster than total confirmed cases. However, the decline after that has been swift.
The growth rate of active cases shows greater volatility than that of total confirmed cases. And that is because the number of recoveries is usually very erratic. Though the normal recovery time is understood to be 14 days, many patients are taking a long time to recover, while several others are declared recovered much before that. Also, there is a greater irregularity in reporting of recoveries as compared to case numbers. Like death numbers, recoveries are also bunched together for several days.
The recoveries now form 68.32 percent of all the confirmed cases, while 2.04 percent of infected people have died. It means that the active cases, as a proportion of total confirmed cases, has fallen below 30 percent for the first time.
However, there is nothing remarkable about the declining proportion of active cases. As the epidemic prolongs, the active cases, as a proportion of total confirmed cases, would progressively drop. It would get to zero by the time epidemic comes to an end.
But during the duration of the epidemic, the slower the active cases grow, the lesser is the burden on health infrastructure and medical professionals. Also, since active patients are the only ones who transmit the disease further to others, a lesser number of active cases would mean the disease would spread at a slower pace.
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